Clinical trajectory of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms progressing to pancreatic carcinomas during long-term surveillance: a prospective series of 100 carcinoma cases

BACKGROUND: Trajectories of serological and morphological signatures have not been documented in pancreatic carcinogenesis related to intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). METHODS: Using a prospective cohort of 3437 IPMN patients, we identified 100 IPMN patients who developed pancreatic carcinomas during long-term surveillance. We examined serial changes of blood markers (carbohydrate antigen 19-9 [CA19-9], hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c], and pancreatic enzymes) and morphological features (worrisome features and high-risk stigmata) during the prediagnostic period of pancreatic carcinomas, overall and by carcinoma types (IPMN-derived vs. concomitant pancreatic carcinomas). RESULTS: CA19-9 elevation was observed in 39 patients and was associated with a metastatic stage. Compared to IPMN-derived carcinomas, concomitant carcinomas were more likely to represent CA19-9 elevation (60% vs. 30%, respectively; P = 0.005). HbA1c levels elevated only in 3 patients. Pancreatic enzyme elevation was observed in 18 patients with no differences in frequencies between the carcinoma types. All patients with elevated levels of blood markers had positive findings on cross-sectional imaging. High-risk stigmata or worrisome features were observed in all patients but one with concomitant carcinoma. The most common types of worrisome features were the main pancreatic duct dilatation and CA19-9 elevation in IPMN-derived and concomitant carcinomas, respectively. Compared to IPMN-derived carcinomas, concomitant carcinomas were less likely to harbor high-risk stigmata (16% vs. 86%, respectively; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The usefulness of currently available blood biomarkers was limited in early detection of pancreatic carcinomas related to IPMNs. Morphological alterations were well correlated with long-term risk of IPMN-derived carcinomas, but not with that of concomitant carcinomas. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00535-023-02028-0.