Personalised simulation of hemodynamics in cerebrovascular disease: lessons learned from a study of diagnostic accuracy

Intracranial atherosclerotic disease (ICAD) poses a significant risk of subsequent stroke but current prevention strategies are limited. Mechanistic simulations of brain hemodynamics offer an alternative precision medicine approach by utilising individual patient characteristics. For clinical use, however, current simulation frameworks have insufficient validation. In this study, we performed the first quantitative validation of a simulation-based precision medicine framework to assess cerebral hemodynamics in patients with ICAD against clinical standard perfusion imaging. In a retrospective analysis, we used a 0-dimensional simulation model to detect brain areas that are hemodynamically vulnerable to subsequent stroke. The main outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC AUC) of the simulation to identify brain areas vulnerable to subsequent stroke as defined by quantitative measurements of relative mean transit time (relMTT) from dynamic susceptibility contrast MRI (DSC-MRI). In 68 subjects with unilateral stenosis >70% of the internal carotid artery (ICA) or middle cerebral artery (MCA), the sensitivity and specificity of the simulation were 0.65 and 0.67, respectively. The ROC AUC was 0.68. The low-to-moderate accuracy of the simulation may be attributed to assumptions of Newtonian blood flow, rigid vessel walls, and the use of time-of-flight MRI for geometric representation of subject vasculature. Future simulation approaches should focus on integrating additional patient data, increasing accessibility of precision medicine tools to clinicians, addressing disease burden disparities amongst different populations, and quantifying patient benefit. Our results underscore the need for further improvement of mechanistic simulations of brain hemodynamics to foster the translation of the technology to clinical practice.