African Swine Fever Shock: China’s Hog Industry’s Resilience and Its Influencing Factors

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The occurrence of African swine fever has restricted the sustainable and healthy development of the hog industry and its ability to enhance the supply of pork, thus negatively impacting China’s economic and social development. During 2018–2021, the resilience of China’s hog industry improved due to the adjustments to the prevention and control mechanisms in African swine fever policy and the subsequent recovery of hog breeding and pork production. There are differences among the key factors influencing the resilience of the hog industry across different provinces and periods. These factors include the slaughter rate, carcass weight, mortality rate, culling rate, economic level, industrial structure, per capita consumption, scale level, resource carrying, etc. The aim of this study is to provide guidance for better prevention and mitigation of epidemic risks, thus promoting the high-quality development of the hog industry and meeting the nutritional needs of residents. ABSTRACT: African swine fever has damaged the foundation of China’s hog industry, caused a serious decline in hog production, highlighted the contradiction between supply and demand in the pork market, and led to major economic and social impacts. The industrial resilience of 31 Chinese provinces to African swine fever shock and its spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics from 2018 to 2021 were measured in this study from the two dimensions of resistance and recoverability. Using Geodetector, the key factors influencing the resilience of China’s hog industry were explored. The results showed that 2018–2019 and 2020–2021 represented the resistance and recovery periods of the hog industry under African swine fever shock, respectively, with poor resilience characterizing the resistance period and improved resilience characterizing the recovery period. At the early stages of the African swine fever outbreak, the hog industries in Tianjin, Shanxi, Guangxi, and Yunnan had robust resistance due to the slaughter rate, economic level, mortality rate, carcass weight, and culling rate in those areas. At the most severe stage of the outbreak, resistance was generally poor in all provinces due to the slaughter rate, per capita consumption, and scale level at the time. During the period of rapid recovery in hog production, the recoverability of each province was very strong due to the industrial structure, culling rate, economic level, and resource carrying capacity at that time. During the reasonable adjustment period of hog production capacity, the recoverability based on the breeding sow inventory in 13 provinces, including Henan, Shandong, and other large hog-breeding provinces, was negative due to the scale level, slaughter rate, per capita consumption, and resource carrying at that time. Taking measures to enhance the resilience of the hog industry, strengthen the prevention and control of hog epidemics, improve the monitoring and early warning mechanisms, and enhance the ability of the hog industry to cope with major animal epidemics is recommended.