Prediction of Rapid Early Progression and Survival Risk with Pre-Radiation MRI in WHO Grade 4 Glioma Patients

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Rapid early progression (REP) has been defined as increased nodular enhancement at the border of the resection cavity, the appearance of new lesions outside the resection cavity, or increased enhancement of the residual disease after surgery and before radiation. Patients with REP have worse survival compared to patients without REP (non-REP). Therefore, a reliable method for differentiating REP from non-REP is hypothesized to assist in personlized treatment planning. A potential approach is to use the radiomics and fractal texture features extracted from brain tumors to characterize morphological and physiological properties. We propose a random sampling-based ensemble classification model. The proposed iterative random sampling of patient data followed by feature selection and classification with radiomics, multi-resolution fractal, and proteomics features predicts REP from non-REP using radiation-planning magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Our results further show the efficacy of pre-radiation image features in the analysis of survival probability and prognostic grouping of patients. ABSTRACT: Recent clinical research describes a subset of glioblastoma patients that exhibit REP prior to the start of radiation therapy. Current literature has thus far described this population using clinicopathologic features. To our knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the potential of conventional radiomics, sophisticated multi-resolution fractal texture features, and different molecular features (MGMT, IDH mutations) as a diagnostic and prognostic tool for prediction of REP from non-REP cases using computational and statistical modeling methods. The radiation-planning T1 post-contrast (T1C) MRI sequences of 70 patients are analyzed. An ensemble method with 5-fold cross-validation over 1000 iterations offers an AUC of 0.793 ± 0.082 for REP versus non-REP classification. In addition, copula-based modeling under dependent censoring (where a subset of the patients may not be followed up with until death) identifies significant features (p-value < 0.05) for survival probability and prognostic grouping of patient cases. The prediction of survival for the patients’ cohort produces a precision of 0.881 ± 0.056. The prognostic index (PI) calculated using the fused features shows that 84.62% of REP cases fall under the bad prognostic group, suggesting the potential of fused features for predicting a higher percentage of REP cases. The experimental results further show that multi-resolution fractal texture features perform better than conventional radiomics features for prediction of REP and survival outcomes.