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Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990–2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach

With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015–2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We...

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Autores principales: Onambele, Luc, Guillen-Aguinaga, Sara, Guillen-Aguinaga, Laura, Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido, Montejo, Rocio, Alas-Brun, Rosa, Aguinaga-Ontoso, Enrique, Aguinaga-Ontoso, Ines, Guillen-Grima, Francisco
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10528291/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37754279
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia4030032
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author Onambele, Luc
Guillen-Aguinaga, Sara
Guillen-Aguinaga, Laura
Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido
Montejo, Rocio
Alas-Brun, Rosa
Aguinaga-Ontoso, Enrique
Aguinaga-Ontoso, Ines
Guillen-Grima, Francisco
author_facet Onambele, Luc
Guillen-Aguinaga, Sara
Guillen-Aguinaga, Laura
Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido
Montejo, Rocio
Alas-Brun, Rosa
Aguinaga-Ontoso, Enrique
Aguinaga-Ontoso, Ines
Guillen-Grima, Francisco
author_sort Onambele, Luc
collection PubMed
description With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015–2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990–2015 data to forecast the MMRs for the next 15 years. We also used the Holt method and the machine-learning Prophet Forecasting Model. The study found a decline in MMRs in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of −2.6% (95% CI −2.7; −2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 161 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 302 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa, averaging 182 per 100,000 births for the continent. Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, no region of Africa will likely reach the SDG target.
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spelling pubmed-105282912023-09-28 Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990–2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach Onambele, Luc Guillen-Aguinaga, Sara Guillen-Aguinaga, Laura Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido Montejo, Rocio Alas-Brun, Rosa Aguinaga-Ontoso, Enrique Aguinaga-Ontoso, Ines Guillen-Grima, Francisco Epidemiologia (Basel) Article With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015–2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990–2015 data to forecast the MMRs for the next 15 years. We also used the Holt method and the machine-learning Prophet Forecasting Model. The study found a decline in MMRs in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of −2.6% (95% CI −2.7; −2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 161 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 302 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa, averaging 182 per 100,000 births for the continent. Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, no region of Africa will likely reach the SDG target. MDPI 2023-08-29 /pmc/articles/PMC10528291/ /pubmed/37754279 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia4030032 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Onambele, Luc
Guillen-Aguinaga, Sara
Guillen-Aguinaga, Laura
Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido
Montejo, Rocio
Alas-Brun, Rosa
Aguinaga-Ontoso, Enrique
Aguinaga-Ontoso, Ines
Guillen-Grima, Francisco
Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990–2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach
title Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990–2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach
title_full Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990–2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach
title_fullStr Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990–2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach
title_full_unstemmed Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990–2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach
title_short Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990–2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach
title_sort trends, projections, and regional disparities of maternal mortality in africa (1990–2030): an arima forecasting approach
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10528291/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37754279
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia4030032
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