Dynamic Causal Modeling and Online Collaborative Forecasting of Air Quality in Hong Kong and Macao

The Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions, situated within China’s Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, significantly influence and are impacted by their air quality conditions. Rapid urbanization, high population density, and air pollution from diverse factors present challenges, making the health of the atmospheric environment in these regions a research focal point. This study offers three key contributions: (1) It applied an interpretable dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to construct a dynamic causal model of air quality in Hong Kong and Macao, amidst complex, unstable, multi-dimensional, and uncertain factors over time. (2) It investigated the dynamic interaction between meteorology and air quality sub-networks, and both qualitatively and quantitatively identified, evaluated, and understood the causal relationships between air pollutants and their determinants. (3) It facilitated an online collaborative forecast of air pollutant concentrations, enabling pollution warnings. The findings proposed that a DBN-based dynamic causal model can effectively explain and manage complex atmospheric environmental systems in Hong Kong and Macao. This method offers crucial insights for decision-making and the management of atmospheric environments not only in these regions but also for neighboring cities and regions with similar geographical contexts.