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Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case

The incidence of cancer has been constantly growing worldwide, placing pressure on health systems and increasing the costs associated with the treatment of cancer. In particular, low- and middle-income countries are expected to face serious challenges related to caring for the majority of the world’...

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Autores principales: Rojas-Díaz, Daniel, Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia, Medina-Gaspar, Daniel, Botero, Jesús Alonso, Rodríguez, Anwar, Rojas, Norberto
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10531264/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37754600
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20186740
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author Rojas-Díaz, Daniel
Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia
Medina-Gaspar, Daniel
Botero, Jesús Alonso
Rodríguez, Anwar
Rojas, Norberto
author_facet Rojas-Díaz, Daniel
Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia
Medina-Gaspar, Daniel
Botero, Jesús Alonso
Rodríguez, Anwar
Rojas, Norberto
author_sort Rojas-Díaz, Daniel
collection PubMed
description The incidence of cancer has been constantly growing worldwide, placing pressure on health systems and increasing the costs associated with the treatment of cancer. In particular, low- and middle-income countries are expected to face serious challenges related to caring for the majority of the world’s new cancer cases in the next 10 years. In this study, we propose a mathematical model that allows for the simulation of different strategies focused on public policies by combining spending and epidemiological indicators. In this way, strategies aimed at efficient spending management with better epidemiological indicators can be determined. For validation and calibration of the model, we use data from Colombia—which, according to the World Bank, is an upper-middle-income country. The results of the simulations using the proposed model, calibrated and validated for Colombia, indicate that the most effective strategy for reducing mortality and financial burden consists of a combination of early detection and greater efficiency of treatment in the early stages of cancer. This approach is found to present a 38% reduction in mortality rate and a 20% reduction in costs (% GDP) when compared to the baseline scenario. Hence, Colombia should prioritize comprehensive care models that focus on patient-centered care, prevention, and early detection.
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spelling pubmed-105312642023-09-28 Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case Rojas-Díaz, Daniel Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia Medina-Gaspar, Daniel Botero, Jesús Alonso Rodríguez, Anwar Rojas, Norberto Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The incidence of cancer has been constantly growing worldwide, placing pressure on health systems and increasing the costs associated with the treatment of cancer. In particular, low- and middle-income countries are expected to face serious challenges related to caring for the majority of the world’s new cancer cases in the next 10 years. In this study, we propose a mathematical model that allows for the simulation of different strategies focused on public policies by combining spending and epidemiological indicators. In this way, strategies aimed at efficient spending management with better epidemiological indicators can be determined. For validation and calibration of the model, we use data from Colombia—which, according to the World Bank, is an upper-middle-income country. The results of the simulations using the proposed model, calibrated and validated for Colombia, indicate that the most effective strategy for reducing mortality and financial burden consists of a combination of early detection and greater efficiency of treatment in the early stages of cancer. This approach is found to present a 38% reduction in mortality rate and a 20% reduction in costs (% GDP) when compared to the baseline scenario. Hence, Colombia should prioritize comprehensive care models that focus on patient-centered care, prevention, and early detection. MDPI 2023-09-11 /pmc/articles/PMC10531264/ /pubmed/37754600 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20186740 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Rojas-Díaz, Daniel
Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia
Medina-Gaspar, Daniel
Botero, Jesús Alonso
Rodríguez, Anwar
Rojas, Norberto
Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case
title Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case
title_full Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case
title_fullStr Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case
title_full_unstemmed Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case
title_short Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case
title_sort mathematical modeling for the assessment of public policies in the cancer health-care system implemented for the colombian case
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10531264/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37754600
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20186740
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