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Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case
The incidence of cancer has been constantly growing worldwide, placing pressure on health systems and increasing the costs associated with the treatment of cancer. In particular, low- and middle-income countries are expected to face serious challenges related to caring for the majority of the world’...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10531264/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37754600 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20186740 |
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author | Rojas-Díaz, Daniel Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia Medina-Gaspar, Daniel Botero, Jesús Alonso Rodríguez, Anwar Rojas, Norberto |
author_facet | Rojas-Díaz, Daniel Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia Medina-Gaspar, Daniel Botero, Jesús Alonso Rodríguez, Anwar Rojas, Norberto |
author_sort | Rojas-Díaz, Daniel |
collection | PubMed |
description | The incidence of cancer has been constantly growing worldwide, placing pressure on health systems and increasing the costs associated with the treatment of cancer. In particular, low- and middle-income countries are expected to face serious challenges related to caring for the majority of the world’s new cancer cases in the next 10 years. In this study, we propose a mathematical model that allows for the simulation of different strategies focused on public policies by combining spending and epidemiological indicators. In this way, strategies aimed at efficient spending management with better epidemiological indicators can be determined. For validation and calibration of the model, we use data from Colombia—which, according to the World Bank, is an upper-middle-income country. The results of the simulations using the proposed model, calibrated and validated for Colombia, indicate that the most effective strategy for reducing mortality and financial burden consists of a combination of early detection and greater efficiency of treatment in the early stages of cancer. This approach is found to present a 38% reduction in mortality rate and a 20% reduction in costs (% GDP) when compared to the baseline scenario. Hence, Colombia should prioritize comprehensive care models that focus on patient-centered care, prevention, and early detection. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10531264 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-105312642023-09-28 Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case Rojas-Díaz, Daniel Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia Medina-Gaspar, Daniel Botero, Jesús Alonso Rodríguez, Anwar Rojas, Norberto Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The incidence of cancer has been constantly growing worldwide, placing pressure on health systems and increasing the costs associated with the treatment of cancer. In particular, low- and middle-income countries are expected to face serious challenges related to caring for the majority of the world’s new cancer cases in the next 10 years. In this study, we propose a mathematical model that allows for the simulation of different strategies focused on public policies by combining spending and epidemiological indicators. In this way, strategies aimed at efficient spending management with better epidemiological indicators can be determined. For validation and calibration of the model, we use data from Colombia—which, according to the World Bank, is an upper-middle-income country. The results of the simulations using the proposed model, calibrated and validated for Colombia, indicate that the most effective strategy for reducing mortality and financial burden consists of a combination of early detection and greater efficiency of treatment in the early stages of cancer. This approach is found to present a 38% reduction in mortality rate and a 20% reduction in costs (% GDP) when compared to the baseline scenario. Hence, Colombia should prioritize comprehensive care models that focus on patient-centered care, prevention, and early detection. MDPI 2023-09-11 /pmc/articles/PMC10531264/ /pubmed/37754600 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20186740 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Rojas-Díaz, Daniel Puerta-Yepes, María Eugenia Medina-Gaspar, Daniel Botero, Jesús Alonso Rodríguez, Anwar Rojas, Norberto Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case |
title | Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case |
title_full | Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case |
title_fullStr | Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case |
title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case |
title_short | Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case |
title_sort | mathematical modeling for the assessment of public policies in the cancer health-care system implemented for the colombian case |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10531264/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37754600 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20186740 |
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