Modeling long-distance airborne transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza carried by dust particles

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is continuously causing significant economic losses with massive poultry depopulations. Airborne transmission of HPAI was suspected, as initial bird mortalities were reported near air inlets of poultry houses. In addition, infected farms were distant, indicating that the viruses carried by dust particles might help the viruses travel for long distances in the environment. The objective of this study focused on simulating the airborne transmission of HPAI by using computational modeling to assess the risk of airborne and deposited avian influenza (AI) carried by poultry-litter dust particles. The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) modeling was used in this study. Data from 168 infected cases in the Mid-Western area of U.S. were obtained from the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) and Watt Poultry. The concentration simulation modeling was performed to estimate the airborne and deposited AI concentration carried by PM(2.5) dust particles. Results showed that concentrations of airborne AI, deposited AI, and combined AI transmitted to other farms in a day were lower than the minimal infective dose for poultry. In most of the scenarios, the predicted probability of infection showed that Iowa-infected farms and turkey poultry houses had the highest infection probability. The findings may provide an understanding of the risk of airborne HPAI virus carried by dust particles and suggest the factors that influence long-distance airborne transmission.