Population pharmacokinetic analysis of lopinavir in HIV negative individuals exposed to SARS-CoV-2: a COPEP (COronavirus Post-Exposure Prophylaxis) sub-study

BACKGROUND: Lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) is a drug traditionally used for the treatment of HIV that has been repurposed as a potential post-exposure prophylaxis agent against COVID-19 in the COronavirus Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (COPEP) study. The present analysis aims to evaluate LPV levels in individuals exposed to SARS-CoV-2 versus people living with HIV (PLWH) by developing a population pharmacokinetic (popPK) model, while characterizing external and patient-related factors that might affect LPV exposure along with dose–response association. METHODS: We built a popPK model on 105 LPV concentrations measured in 105 HIV-negative COPEP individuals exposed to SARS-CoV-2, complemented with 170 LPV concentrations from 119 PLWH followed in our routine therapeutic drug-monitoring programme. Published LPV popPK models developed in PLWH and in COVID-19 patients were retrieved and validated in our study population by mean prediction error (MPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The association between LPV model-predicted residual concentrations (C(min)) and the appearance of the COVID-19 infection in the COPEP participants was investigated. RESULTS: A one-compartment model with linear absorption and elimination best described LPV concentrations in both our analysis and in the majority of the identified studies. Globally, similar PK parameters were found in all PK models, and provided close MPEs (from -19.4% to 8.0%, with a RMSE of 3.4% to 49.5%). No statistically significant association between C(min) and the occurrence of a COVID-19 infection could be detected. CONCLUSION: Our analysis indicated that LPV circulating concentrations were similar between COPEP participants and PLWH, and that published popPK models described our data in a comparable way. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40360-023-00687-6.