Match analysis and probability of winning a point in elite men’s singles tennis

Notational analysis and new technologies have allowed a better understanding of tactical actions in tennis. In particular, the combined analysis of different variables affecting performance is necessary to understand the relationships between actions in competition. The aim of this research was to analyse the probability of winning a point in men’s professional tennis based on the most relevant variables affecting performance in this sport. A total of 4,669 points were analysed on three different court surfaces from the final rounds (from the quarter-finals onwards) of three of the four Grand Slam tournaments in the 2021 season. An observational methodology was applied. Different analysis techniques were used to obtain the results: descriptive and chi-square with a significance level of p<0.05. First serve effectiveness (point won) was 69% on clay, 75% on grass and 75% on hard court. Second serve effectiveness (point won) was around 55% regardless of the surface. The majority of points, between 65% and 77% depending on the court surface, ended with a short rally (between one and four shots). Approximately 80% of the points played with first serve and short rally were won by the serving player. With first serve and medium length rallies, the probability of winning the point is similar between server (range 49–55%) and receiver on any court surface. The study reveals a set of patterns (based on the combination of information from the variables analysed) that determine the probability of winning a point. Descriptive data from this research could help coaches and players on match strategy at the highest levels of elite men’s single tennis.