Evaluating Predictors of Participation in Telephone-Based Social-Connectedness Interventions for Older Adults: A Dual Machine-Learning and Regression Approach

Social isolation is a well-documented contributor to poor mental and physical health, and interventions promoting social connectedness have been associated with various health benefits. This study examined predictors of participation in a telephone-based social connectedness intervention for socially isolated older adults. Data were obtained from a social-connectedness intervention that paired college students with Houston-area, community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and older and enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. We combined machine learning and regression techniques to identify significant predictors of program participation. The following machine-learning methods were implemented: (1) k-nearest neighbors, (2) decision tree and ensembles of decision trees, (3) gradient-boosted decision tree, and (4) random forest. The primary outcome was a binary flag indicating participation in the telephone-based social-connectedness intervention. The most predictive variables in the ML models, with scores corresponding to the 90th percentile or greater, were included in the regression analysis. The predictive ability of each model showed high discriminative power, with test accuracies greater than 95%. Our findings suggest that telephone-based social-connectedness interventions appeal to individuals with disabilities, depression, arthritis, and higher risk scores. scores. Recognizing features that predict participation in social-connectedness programs is the first step to increasing reach and fostering patient engagement.