Online decision tools for personalized survival prediction and treatment optimization in elderly patients with lung squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Despite major advances in cancer therapeutics, the therapeutic options of Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma (LSCC)-specific remain limited. Furthermore, the current staging system is imperfect for defining a prognosis and guiding treatment due to its simplicity and heterogeneity. We sought to develop prognostic decision tools for individualized survival prediction and treatment optimization in elderly patients with LSCC. METHODS: Clinical data of 4564 patients (stageIB-IIIB) diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for prognostic nomograms development. The proposed models were externally validated using a separate group consisting of 1299 patients (stage IB-IIIB) diagnosed from 2012–2015 in China. The prognostic performance was measured using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, the average time-dependent area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC), and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Eleven candidate prognostic variables were identified by the univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis. The calibration curves showed satisfactory agreement between the actual and nomogram-estimated Lung Cancer-Specific Survival (LCSS) rates. By calculating the c-indices and average AUC, our nomograms presented a higher prognostic accuracy than the current staging system. Clinical usefulness was revealed by the decision curve analysis. User-friendly online decision tools integrating proposed nomograms were created to estimate survival for patients with different treatment regimens. CONCLUSIONS: The decision tools for individualized survival prediction and treatment optimization might facilitate clinicians with decision-making, medical teaching, and experimental design. Online tools are expected to be integrated into clinical practice by using the freely available website (https://loyal-brand-611803.framer.app/). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-11309-z.