Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of the invasive tomato pinworm Phthorimaea absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae)

Phthorimaea absoluta (Meyrick) (= Tuta absoluta) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), is the most damaging insect pest threatening the production of tomato and other solanaceous vegetables in many countries. In this study, we predicted the risk of establishment and number of generations for P. absoluta in the current and future climatic conditions under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) of the years 2050 and 2070 using insect life cycle modelling (ILCYM) software. We used a temperature-dependent phenology model to project three risk indices viz., establishment risk index (ERI), generation index (GI), and activity index (AI) based on temperature data. The model projected large suitable areas for P. absoluta establishment in the Southern hemisphere under current and future climatic scenarios, compared to the Northern part. However, the risk of P. absoluta is expected to increase in Europe, USA, Southern Africa, and some parts of Asia in the future. Under current conditions, P. absoluta can complete between 6 and 16 generations per year in suitable areas. However, an increase in GI between 1 and 3 per year is projected for most parts of the world in the future, with an increase in AI between 1 and 4. Our results provide information on the risk of establishment of P. absoluta which could guide decision-makers to develop control strategies adapted for specific agro-ecological zones.