The survival time of end-of-life home care patients in Fukui prefecture, Japan: A retrospective observational study

End-of-life advance care planning (ACP) has become increasingly important in home care setting. In facilitating ACP discussion in home care setting, accurate understanding of patients’ survival would be beneficial because it would facilitate healthcare professionals to individualize ACP discussion. However, little is known about survival outcome of home care patients. This study aimed to clarify the outcome of patients and identify factors to better predict the survival outcome of home care patients with the focus on patients’ primary diseases. We conducted a retrospective analysis using data from 277 patients managed at a home care clinic in Japan and first treated in 2017 or 2018. Data regarding sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, and clinical outcome on December 31, 2019 were extracted. Using Kaplan–Meier product-limit method, we estimated the overall 30 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 3 year survival probabilities among the entire patients and their differences according to their primary disease. We also evaluated whether outcomes differed based on the primary disease or other factors using the hazard ratio and Cox proportional hazards regression. The overall survival probability was 82.5% at 30 days, 67.8% at 90 days, 52.7% at 1 year, and 39.1% at 3 years. The survival rates at 30 days, 90 days, 1 year, and 3 years were 64.6%, 33.4%, 9.5%, and 4.1% among cancer patients; 91.9%, 86.4%, 78.1%, and 47.0% among dementia patients; and 91.9%, 86.4%, 78.1%, and 47.0% among patients with other nervous and cerebrovascular diseases, respectively. Cox proportional hazard regression clarified that cancer patients (hazard ratio 6.53 [95% CI 4.16–10.28]) and older adults (hazard ratio 1.01 [95% CI 1.00–1.02]) were significantly more likely to die than dementia patients and young patients, respectively. Primary disease had a significant influence on the prediction of survival time and could be a useful indicator to individualize ACP in home care setting.