Can physiologic colonic [(18)F]FDG uptake in PET/CT imaging predict response to immunotherapy in metastatic melanoma?

AIM: The development of biomarkers that can reliably and early predict response to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) is crucial in melanoma. In recent years, the gut microbiome has emerged as an important regulator of immunotherapy response, which may, moreover, serve as a surrogate marker and prognosticator in oncological patients under immunotherapy. Aim of the present study is to investigate if physiologic colonic [(18)F]FDG uptake in PET/CT before start of ICIs correlates with clinical outcome of metastatic melanoma patients. The relation between [(18)F]FDG uptake in lymphoid cell-rich organs and long-term patient outcome is also assessed. METHODOLOGY: One hundred nineteen stage IV melanoma patients scheduled for immunotherapy with ipilimumab, applied either as monotherapy or in combination with nivolumab, underwent baseline [(18)F]FDG PET/CT. PET/CT data analysis consisted of standardized uptake value (SUV), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) calculations in the colon as well as measurements of the colon-to-liver SUV ratios (CLR(mean), CLR(max)). Visual grading of colon uptake based on a four-point scale was also performed. Moreover, the spleen-to-liver SUV ratios (SLR(mean), SLR(max)) and the bone marrow-to-liver SUV ratios (BLR(mean), BLR(max)) were calculated. We also measured serum lipopolysaccharide (LPS) levels as a marker for bacterial translocation and surrogate for mucosal defense homeostasis. The results were correlated with patients’ best clinical response, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) as well as clinical signs of colitis. RESULTS: Median follow-up [95%CI] from the beginning of immunotherapy was 64.6 months [61.0–68.6 months]. Best response to treatment was progressive disease (PD) for 60 patients, stable disease (SD) for 37 patients, partial response (PR) for 18 patients, and complete response (CR) for 4 patients. Kaplan–Meier curves demonstrated a trend for longer PFS and OS in patients with lower colonic SUV and CLR values; however, no statistical significance for these parameters as prognostic factors was demonstrated. On the other hand, patients showing disease control as best response to treatment (SD, PR, CR) had significantly lower colonic MTV and TLG than those showing PD. With regard to lymphoid cell-rich organs, significantly lower baseline SLR(max) and BLR(max) were observed in patients responding with disease control than progression to treatment. Furthermore, patients with lower SLR(max) and BLR(max) values had a significantly longer OS when dichotomized at their median. In multivariate analysis, PET parameters that were found to significantly adversely correlate with patient survival were colonic MTV for PFS, colonic TLG for PFS, and BLR(max) for PFS and OS. CONCLUSIONS: Physiologic colonic [(18)F]FDG uptake in PET/CT, as assessed by means of SUV, before start of ipilimumab-based treatment does not seem to independently predict patient survival of metastatic melanoma. On the other hand, volumetric PET parameters, such as MTV and TLG, derived from the normal gut may identify patients showing disease control to immunotherapy and significantly correlate with PFS. Moreover, the investigation of glucose metabolism in the spleen and the bone marrow may offer prognostic information. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00259-023-06327-9.