Analysis and prediction of liver volume change maps derived from computational tomography scans acquired pre- and post-radiation therapy

External beam radiation therapy (EBRT) of liver cancers can cause local liver atrophy as a result of tissue damage or hypertrophy as a result of liver regeneration. Predicting those volumetric changes would enable new strategies for liver function preservation during treatment planning. However, understanding of the spatial dose/volume relationship is still limited. This study leverages the use of deep learning-based segmentation and biomechanical deformable image registration (DIR) to analyze and predict this relationship. Pre- and Post-EBRT imaging data were collected for 100 patients treated for hepatocellular carcinomas, cholangiocarcinoma or CRC with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) with prescription doses ranging from 50 to 100 Gy delivered in 10–28 fractions. For each patient, DIR between the portal and venous (PV) phase of a diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scan acquired before radiation therapy (RT) planning, and a PV phase of a diagnostic CT scan acquired after the end of RT (on average 147 ± 36 d) was performed to calculate Jacobian maps representing volume changes in the liver. These volume change maps were used: (i): to analyze the dose/volume relationship in the whole liver and individual Couinaud’s segments; and (ii): to investigate the use of deep-learning to predict a Jacobian map solely based on the pre-RT diagnostic CT and planned dose distribution. Moderate correlations between mean equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions (EQD2) and volume change was observed for all liver sub-regions analyzed individually with Pearson correlation r ranging from −0.36 to −067. The predicted volume change maps showed a significantly stronger voxel-wise correlation with the DIR-based volume change maps than when considering the original EQD2 distribution (0.63 ± 0.24 versus 0.55 ± 23, respectively), demonstrating the ability of the proposed approach to establish complex relationships between planned dose and liver volume response months after treatment, which represents a promising prediction tool for the development of future adaptive and personalized liver radiation therapy strategies.