Development of a machine learning-based acuity score prediction model for virtual care settings

OBJECTIVE: Healthcare is increasingly digitized, yet remote and automated machine learning (ML) triage prediction systems for virtual urgent care use remain limited. The Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS) is the gold standard triage tool for in-person care in Canada. The current work describes the development of a ML-based acuity score modelled after the CTAS system. METHODS: The ML-based acuity score model was developed using 2,460,109 de-identified patient-level encounter records from three large healthcare organizations (Ontario, Canada). Data included presenting complaint, clinical modifiers, age, sex, and self-reported pain. 2,041,987 records were high acuity (CTAS 1–3) and 416,870 records were low acuity (CTAS 4–5). Five models were trained: decision tree, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, gradient boosting regressor, and neural net. The outcome variable of interest was the acuity score predicted by the ML system compared to the CTAS score assigned by the triage nurse. RESULTS: Gradient boosting regressor demonstrated the greatest prediction accuracy. This final model was tuned toward up triaging to minimize patient risk if adopted into the clinical context. The algorithm predicted the same score in 47.4% of cases, and the same or more acute score in 95.0% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: The ML algorithm shows reasonable predictive accuracy and high predictive safety and was developed using the largest dataset of its kind to date. Future work will involve conducting a pilot study to validate and prospectively assess reliability of the ML algorithm to assign acuity scores remotely. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-023-02307-z.