Machine learning-based prediction model of acute kidney injury in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) can make cases of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) more complex, and the combination of the two can significantly worsen the prognosis. Our objective is to utilize machine learning (ML) techniques to construct models that can promptly identify the risk of AKI in ARDS patients. METHOD: We obtained data regarding ARDS patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) and MIMIC-IV databases. Within the MIMIC-III dataset, we developed 11 ML prediction models. By evaluating various metrics, we visualized the importance of its features using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). We then created a more concise model using fewer variables, and optimized it using hyperparameter optimization (HPO). The model was validated using the MIMIC-IV dataset. RESULT: A total of 928 ARDS patients without AKI were included in the analysis from the MIMIC-III dataset, and among them, 179 (19.3%) developed AKI after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). In the MIMIC-IV dataset, there were 653 ARDS patients included in the analysis, and among them, 237 (36.3%) developed AKI. A total of 43 features were used to build the model. Among all models, eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) performed the best. We used the top 10 features to build a compact model with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850, which improved to an AUC of 0.865 after the HPO. In extra validation set, XGBoost_HPO achieved an AUC of 0.854. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive prediction value (PPV), negative prediction value (NPV), and F1 score of the XGBoost_HPO model on the test set are 0.865, 0.813, 0.877, 0.578, 0.957 and 0.675, respectively. On extra validation set, they are 0.724, 0.789, 0.688, 0.590, 0.851, and 0.675, respectively. CONCLUSION: ML algorithms, especially XGBoost, are reliable for predicting AKI in ARDS patients. The compact model maintains excellent predictive ability, and the web-based calculator improves clinical convenience. This provides valuable guidance in identifying AKI in ARDS, leading to improved patient outcomes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-023-02663-6.