Prognostic factors influencing HIV-free survival among infants enrolled for HIV early infant diagnosis services in selected hospitals in Nairobi County, Kenya

BACKGROUND: Despite being a preventable disease, pediatric HIV infection continues to be a public health concern due to the morbidity and mortality associated with the disease. Vertical transmission of HIV occurs when a mother living with HIV passes the virus to her baby during pregnancy, childbirth, or breastfeeding. Globally, the vertical transmission rate of HIV is 9% with sub-Saharan Africa accounting for 90% of these infections. In Kenya, the national vertical transmission rates of HIV stood at 11.5% by the end of 2018, with a target to reduce vertical transmission rates to below 5% and 2% in breastfeeding and non-breastfeeding infants respectively, by the end of 2021. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prognostic factors influencing HIV-free survival among infants enrolled for HIV early infant diagnosis (EID) services in selected hospitals in Nairobi County, Kenya. METHODS: A prospective cohort study design was adopted. HIV exposed infants were recruited at six weeks to determine HIV-free survival over 12 months follow up. Simple random sampling was used to select 166 infants and data were collected from the mothers using semi-structured interviewer-administered questionnaires. Log-rank tests were used to test for associations at the bi-variable level while Cox-proportional regression was used to analyze data at the multi-variable level, with the aid of STATA 14 software. Ethical approval was obtained from Kenya Medical Research Institute, Scientific Ethics Review Unit. RESULTS: The overall infant HIV incidence rate over one-year follow-up was 9 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI: 5.465–16.290). The failure event was defined as an infant with a positive PCR test during the study period with total failures being 13 (9.41%) over 12 months. Prognostic factors associated with poor infant HIV-free survival were young maternal age (18–24 years) and mothers with a recent HIV diagnosis of ≤ 2 years since a positive HIV diagnosis (HR 5.97 CI: 1.20, 29.58) and (HR 6.97 CI: 1.96, 24.76), respectively. CONCLUSION: Maternal prognostic factors associated with poor infant HIV-free survival were young maternal age (18–24 years) and recent maternal HIV diagnosis of ≤ 2 years since positive HIV diagnosis. The study recommended the development of an intervention package with more rigorous adherence counseling and close monitoring for young mothers, and mothers with recent HIV diagnoses.