Evaluation of the novel three lipid indices for predicting five- and ten-year incidence of cardiovascular disease: findings from Kerman coronary artery disease risk factors study (KERCADRS)

BACKGROUND: Data are limited on the relationship between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and the combinational indices of lipid accumulation product (LAP), triglyceride-glucose index (TyG), and visceral adiposity index (VAI). The association of these novel indices with the 5- and 10-year incidence of CVD was assessed. METHOD: A total of 1888 and 1450 healthy adults aged between 15 and 75 years (out of the 5895 participants of the KERCADR study, 2012) were followed for five and ten years, respectively. Baseline LAP, TyG, and VAI were calculated and logistic regression models were used to assess their relationship with the incidence of CVD in the two follow-up periods. Also, the predictive performance of these three indices was analyzed using the area under ROC curve (AUC) for the development of CVD compared with traditional single indices. RESULTS: In the 5- and 10-year follow-ups, 399 and 476 CVD cases (21.1% and 32.8%) were documented, respectively. For the 5-year CVD risk, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR, 95% CI) was LAP (2.24 [1.44, 3.50]), VAI (1.58 [1.08, 2.33]), and TyG (1.57 [1.02, 2.42]). For the 10-year CVD risk, the AOR was LAP (1.61 [1.04, 2.49]), TyG (1.57 [1.02, 2.41]), and VAI (1.41 [0.96, 2.09]). In both periods and sexes, LAP had the best performance with the highest AUCs (0.644 and 0.651) compared to the other two indices and compared to the traditional single indices (e.g., BMI, LDL, etc.). CONCLUSION: Overall LAP, TyG, and VAI were better CVD risk predictors compared to the traditional single risk factors, with LAP showing the strongest predictive power for the incidence of CVD. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12944-023-01932-x.