Development and validation of a new risk assessment model for immunomodulatory drug-associated venous thrombosis among Chinese patients with multiple myeloma

BACKGROUND: Individuals with multiple myeloma (MM) receiving immunomodulatory drugs (IMiDs) are at risk of developing venous thromboembolism (VTE), a serious complication. There is no established clinical model for predicting VTE in the Chinese population. We develop a new risk assessment model (RAM) for IMiD-associated VTE in Chinese MM patients. METHODS: We retrospectively selected 1334 consecutive MM patients receiving IMiDs from 16 medical centers in China and classified them randomly into the derivation and validation cohorts. A multivariate Cox regression model was used for analysis. RESULTS: The overall incidence of IMiD-related VTE in Chinese MM patients was 6.1%. Independent predictive factors of VTE (diabetes, ECOG performance status, erythropoietin-stimulating agent use, dexamethasone use, and VTE history or family history of thrombosis) were identified and merged to develop the RAM. The model identified approximately 30% of the patients in each cohort at high risk for VTE. The hazard ratios (HRs) were 6.08 (P < 0.001) and 6.23 (P < 0.001) for the high-risk subcohort and the low-risk subcohort, respectively, within both the derivation and validation cohorts. The RAM achieved satisfactory discrimination with a C statistic of 0.64. The stratification approach of the IMWG guidelines yielded respective HRs of 1.77 (P = 0.053) and 1.81 (P = 0.063). The stratification approach of the SAVED score resulted in HRs of 3.23 (P = 0.248) and 1.65 (P = 0.622), respectively. The IMWG guideline and the SAVED score-based method yielded C statistics of 0.58 and 0.51, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The new RAM outperformed the IMWG guidelines and the SAVED score and could potentially guide the VTE prophylaxis strategy for Chinese MM patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12959-023-00534-y.