Association of preoperative electrocardiographic markers with sepsis in elderly patients after general surgery

BACKGROUND: Electrocardiographic markers, as surrogates for sympathetic excitotoxicity, are widely predictive of cardiovascular adverse events, but whether these markers can predict postsurgical sepsis (SS) is unclear. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed patients who underwent abdominal surgery from March 2013 to May 2023. We collected basic data, comorbidities, blood samples, echocardiology, electrocardiogram, and surgical data, as well as short-term outcome. The primary endpoints were postsurgical SS, in which logistic regression analyses can identify independent risk factors. The optimal cut-off value predictive postsurgical SS both P wave and PR interval were calculated in the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). RESULTS: A total of 1988 subjects were analyzed, and the incidence of postsurgical SS was 3.8%. The mean age at enrollment was 68.6 ± 7.1 years, and 53.2% of the participants were men. In the ROC analysis, the areas under the curve (AUC) for P wave and PR interval predictive postsurgical SS were 0.615 (95%CI, 0.548–0.683; p = 0.001) and 0.618 (95%CI, 0.554–0.682; p = 0.001), respectively. The P wave and PR interval predicted postoperative sepsis with optimal discrimination of 103 and 157 ms, with a sensitivity of 0.744 and 0.419, and a specificity of 0.427 and 0.760. P-wave less than 103 ms or PR interval less than 157 ms associated with a 2.06 or 2.33 fold increase occurred risk postsurgical SS. CONCLUSIONS: Shorter P-wave and PR intervals were both independently associated with postsurgical SS. These preoperative electrophysiological markers could have potential useful for early recognition of postoperative SS.