Association between estimated glomerular filtration rate slope and cardiovascular disease among individuals with and without diabetes: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an association between a significant decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time and an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study aimed to investigate the association between the eGFR slope and CVD among individuals with and without diabetes. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted within the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) framework. We studied 6919 adults aged 20–70 years, including 985 with diabetes and 5934 without diabetes. The eGFR slope was determined based on repeated measurements of eGFR through linear mixed-effects models. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model was employed to evaluate the association between eGFR slope, both in continuous and categorical form, and the risk of CVD. RESULTS: The slopes of eGFR exhibited a bell-shaped distribution, with a mean (standard deviation (SD)) of -0.63 (0.13) and − 0.70 (0.14) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year in individuals with and without diabetes, respectively. During a median follow-up of 8.22 years, following the 9-year eGFR slope ascertainment period, a total of 551 CVD events (195 in patients with diabetes) were observed. Among individuals with diabetes, a steeper decline in eGFR slope was significantly associated with a higher risk of CVD events, even after adjusting for baseline eGFR, demographic factors, and traditional risk factors for CVD; slopes of (-1.05 to -0.74) and (-0.60 to -0.52) were associated with 2.12 and %64 higher risks for CVD, respectively, compared with a slope of (-0.51 to 0.16). Among individuals without diabetes, the annual eGFR slope did not show a significant association with the risk of CVD. CONCLUSION: Monitoring the eGFR slope may serve as a potential predictor of CVD risk in individuals with diabetes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-023-02008-x.