Trend analysis of asthma mortality and years of life lost from 2004 to 2019 in Southern Iran

OBJECTIVE: Asthma is a globally important non-communicable disease with major public health consequences. The aim of this study was to determine the mortality rate and years of life lost (YLL) due to asthma in southern Iran. METHODS: All deaths due to asthma in Fars province from the electronic population-based death registration system (EDRS) were obtained. Crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate, YLL and YLL rate data were calculated. The JoinPoint Regression method was used to examine the trend. RESULTS: During the 16-year study period (2004-2019), 1167 deaths due to asthma occurred in Fars province among which 54.7% (638 cases) were men and 29.6% (346 cases) were in the age group of 70–79 years. Crude mortality rate of asthma had decreased by 121% and 84% in males and females, respectively from 2004 to 2019. The total years of life lost due to asthma during the 16-year study period were 7697 (0.24 per 1000 people) in men, 6882 (0.22 per 1000 people) in women. According to the join point regression analysis, the 16-year trend of YLL rate due to premature mortality was decreasing: the annual percent change (APC) was -5.6% (95% CI −8.2 to −2.9, P = 0.001) for males, −4.4% (95% CI −7.3 to −1.4, P = 0.008) for females. CONCLUSION: The trend of mortality and years of life lost due to asthma has decreased significantly during the years of study, although in some age groups, especially the age group of 45–59 years which has the highest number of years of life lost, this trend has been constant and unchanged. It is necessary to conduct other studies to investigate the possible reasons for this unchanged trend in vulnerable age groups.