Inter-observer variation in two-dimensional and three-dimensional ultrasound measurement of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

BACKGROUNDS: The reliable ultrasound (US) measurements of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) are very important during active surveillance. This prospective study was design to investigate the inter-observer reliability and agreement of two- dimensional ultrasound(2DUS) and three-dimensional ultrasound(3DUS) in the measurement of maximum diameter and volume for PTMC. METHODS: This prospective study included 51 consecutive patients with solitary PTMC confirmed by biopsy. Two independent observers performed measurements of each tumor using a standardized measurement protocol. The maximum diameter was the largest one of the three diameters measured on the largest transverse and longitudinal 2DUS images. 2DUS volume was calculated using ellipsoid formula method. The virtual organ computer aided analysis(VOCAL) was used to determine 3DUS volume. The inter-observer reliability was assessed using intraclass correlation coefficient(ICC) with 95% confidence intervals(CIs). Bland-Altman analysis was used to evaluate agreement, and expressed as a bias with 95% limits of agreement(LOA). RESULTS: The maximum diameter was 0.78 ± 0.14 cm. Volume measured by 3DUS was significantly smaller than that by 2DUS(0.163 ± 0.074 cm(3) vs. 0.175 ± 0.078 cm(3), P = 0.005). The ICCs of inter-observer reliability of maximum diameter, 2DUS volume and 3DUS volume was 0.922(0.864–0.955), 0.928(0.874–0.959), and 0.974(0.955–0.985), respectively. The ICCs of 2DUS and 3DUS volume was 0.955(0.909–0.976). The inter-observer agreement of maximum diameter, 2DUS volume and 3DUS volume was 1.096(0.7322 to 1.459), 1.008(0.5802–1.435), and 1.011(0.7576–1.265), respectively. The inter-observer agreement of 2DUS and 3DUS volume was 1.096(0.7322 to 1.459). CONCLUSION: Maximum diameter had the lowest degree of observer variation among all the measurements. Volume measured by 3DUS had lower variability and higher repeatability than that by 2DUS, which might be helpful to provide more reliable estimates of tumor size for PTMC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40644-023-00613-3.