Does non-motorists’ safety perception of autonomous vehicles vary across opinion change stemming from crash occurrence? Investigating perceptions using fixed and random parameter ordered logit models

The perception of non-motorists toward autonomous vehicles (AVs) could change or remain the same after hearing about a fatal AV crash. This study aims to discern the differences between non-motorists whose opinions were influenced and those whose views remained unchanged after hearing about the fatal AV crash. Additionally, this study investigates how the operational competence of AV manufacturers affect non-motorist's safety perception. A fixed parameter ordered logit model was explored to explain non-motorists’ safety perception for respondents who changed their opinion after a crash occurrence and those who did not. A random parameter ordered logit model was then explored to address the difference in residual variance. The finding from the random parameter ordered logit model indicates that two factors (i.e., future impact of AVs on traffic injuries and willingness to adopt Pittsburgh's streets as a proving ground) were significant for the respondents with negative change in opinion after the crash. The result also suggests that negative information such as the crash in Arizona may influence non-motorists’ safety perception of AVs, but this effect can be mitigated by providing positive information about the AVs. The results also demonstrate that non-motorists who perceive the operational competence of the AV manufacturers to be high have higher safety perception of the AVs, while those who perceive the operational competence of the AV manufacturers to be low have lower safety perception of the AVs. This study offers recommendations for policies and interventions to enhance non-motorists' safety based on the examination of factors associated with safety perception among respondents who changed their opinion following a crash and those who maintained their initial stance.