Habitat range shift and prediction of the potential future distribution of Ricinodendron heudelotii (Baill.) Heckel in Benin (West Africa)

Ricinodendron heudelotii (Baill.) Heckel is an important nutraceutical reservoir. Its Sustainable exploitation requires information on its potential distribution in the current context of rapid population growth and climate change threats. This study aimed to map the suitable areas for its domestication and conservation under current and future climate conditions in Benin. Occurrence data were recorded and combined with the environmental layers of two climatic scenarios (optimistic RCP 4.5 and pessimistic RCP 8.5) following the biodiversity modelling approach (biomod2). Currently, about four percent (5082 Km(2)) of the country's area mainly located in the sub-humid and the humid zones were potentially suitable for R. heudelotii distribution. Under future climatic conditions the potentially suitable areas were mainly in the sub-humid zone, but almost all the highly suitable areas located in the humid zone will become medium suitable areas by the years 2055 and 2085 horizons. This study shows that, whatever the future climatic scenarios, R. heudelotii will substantially maintain the size of its range across the country. These findings allow undertaking anticipated actions to better adapt to the potential effects of climate change and to better guide policies for the conservation and development of forest resources.