Prediction model of gleason score upgrading after radical prostatectomy based on a bayesian network

OBJECTIVE: To explore the clinical value of the Gleason score upgrading (GSU) prediction model after radical prostatectomy (RP) based on a Bayesian network. METHODS: The data of 356 patients who underwent prostate biopsy and RP in our hospital from January 2018 to May 2021 were retrospectively analysed. Fourteen risk factors, including age, body mass index (BMI), total prostate-specific antigen (tPSA), prostate volume, total prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD), the number and proportion of positive biopsy cores, PI-RADS score, clinical stage and postoperative pathological characteristics, were included in the analysis. Data were used to establish a prediction model for Gleason score elevation based on the tree augmented naive (TAN) Bayesian algorithm. Moreover, the Bayesia Lab validation function was used to calculate the importance of polymorphic Birnbaum according to the results of the posterior analysis and to obtain the importance of each risk factor. RESULTS: In the overall cohort, 110 patients (30.89%) had GSU. Based on all of the risk factors that were included in this study, the AUC of the model was 81.06%, and the accuracy was 76.64%. The importance ranking results showed that lymphatic metastasis, the number of positive biopsy cores, ISUP stage and PI-RADS score were the top four influencing factors for GSU after RP. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model of GSU after RP based on a Bayesian network has high accuracy and can more accurately evaluate the Gleason score of prostate biopsy specimens and guide treatment decisions. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12894-023-01330-6.