Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) and risk of new-onset heart failure: a retrospective analysis of 173,966 patients

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represents the leading cause of chronic liver disease. Its high mortality and morbidity are mainly caused by non-hepatic comorbidities and their clinical complications. Accumulating evidence suggests an association between NAFLD and heart failure (HF), but large-scale data analyses from Germany are scarce. METHODS: Using the Disease Analyzer database (IQVIA), this analysis retrospectively evaluated two cohorts of outpatients with and without NAFLD with respect to the cumulative incidence of HF as the primary outcome between January 2005 and December 2020. Cohorts were propensity score matched for sex, age, index year, yearly consultation frequency, and known risk factors for HF. RESULTS: A total of 173,966 patients were included in the analysis. Within 10 years of the index date, 13.2% vs. 10.0% of patients with and without NAFLD were newly diagnosed with HF (p < 0.001). This finding was supported by univariate Cox regression analysis in which NAFLD was found to be significantly associated with subsequent HF (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.34, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.28–1.39, p < 0.001). The association between NAFLD and HF was observed across all analysed age groups and as comparable between both men (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.23–1.38; p < 0.001) and women (HR: 1.37, 95% CI 1.29–1.45; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: NAFLD is significantly associated with an increased cumulative incidence of HF, which, given its rapidly increasing global prevalence, could be crucial to further reduce its high mortality and morbidity. We recommend risk stratification within a multidisciplinary approach for NAFLD patients, including systematic prevention or early detection strategies for HF. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00392-023-02250-z.