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Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks

How long is needed for an observable to exceed its previous highest value and establish a new record? This time, known as the age of a record plays a crucial role in quantifying record statistics. Until now, general methods for determining record age statistics have been limited to observations of e...

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Autores principales: Régnier, Léo, Dolgushev, Maxim, Bénichou, Olivier
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10562453/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37813834
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41945-9
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author Régnier, Léo
Dolgushev, Maxim
Bénichou, Olivier
author_facet Régnier, Léo
Dolgushev, Maxim
Bénichou, Olivier
author_sort Régnier, Léo
collection PubMed
description How long is needed for an observable to exceed its previous highest value and establish a new record? This time, known as the age of a record plays a crucial role in quantifying record statistics. Until now, general methods for determining record age statistics have been limited to observations of either independent random variables or successive positions of a Markovian (memoryless) random walk. Here we develop a theoretical framework to determine record age statistics in the presence of memory effects for continuous non-smooth processes that are asymptotically scale-invariant. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed by numerical simulations and experimental realisations of diverse representative non-Markovian random walk models and real time series with memory effects, in fields as diverse as genomics, climatology, hydrology, geology and computer science. Our results reveal the crucial role of the number of records already achieved in time series and change our view on analysing record statistics.
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spelling pubmed-105624532023-10-11 Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks Régnier, Léo Dolgushev, Maxim Bénichou, Olivier Nat Commun Article How long is needed for an observable to exceed its previous highest value and establish a new record? This time, known as the age of a record plays a crucial role in quantifying record statistics. Until now, general methods for determining record age statistics have been limited to observations of either independent random variables or successive positions of a Markovian (memoryless) random walk. Here we develop a theoretical framework to determine record age statistics in the presence of memory effects for continuous non-smooth processes that are asymptotically scale-invariant. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed by numerical simulations and experimental realisations of diverse representative non-Markovian random walk models and real time series with memory effects, in fields as diverse as genomics, climatology, hydrology, geology and computer science. Our results reveal the crucial role of the number of records already achieved in time series and change our view on analysing record statistics. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-10-09 /pmc/articles/PMC10562453/ /pubmed/37813834 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41945-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Régnier, Léo
Dolgushev, Maxim
Bénichou, Olivier
Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks
title Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks
title_full Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks
title_fullStr Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks
title_full_unstemmed Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks
title_short Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks
title_sort record ages of non-markovian scale-invariant random walks
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10562453/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37813834
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41945-9
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