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Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks
How long is needed for an observable to exceed its previous highest value and establish a new record? This time, known as the age of a record plays a crucial role in quantifying record statistics. Until now, general methods for determining record age statistics have been limited to observations of e...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10562453/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37813834 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41945-9 |
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author | Régnier, Léo Dolgushev, Maxim Bénichou, Olivier |
author_facet | Régnier, Léo Dolgushev, Maxim Bénichou, Olivier |
author_sort | Régnier, Léo |
collection | PubMed |
description | How long is needed for an observable to exceed its previous highest value and establish a new record? This time, known as the age of a record plays a crucial role in quantifying record statistics. Until now, general methods for determining record age statistics have been limited to observations of either independent random variables or successive positions of a Markovian (memoryless) random walk. Here we develop a theoretical framework to determine record age statistics in the presence of memory effects for continuous non-smooth processes that are asymptotically scale-invariant. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed by numerical simulations and experimental realisations of diverse representative non-Markovian random walk models and real time series with memory effects, in fields as diverse as genomics, climatology, hydrology, geology and computer science. Our results reveal the crucial role of the number of records already achieved in time series and change our view on analysing record statistics. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10562453 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-105624532023-10-11 Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks Régnier, Léo Dolgushev, Maxim Bénichou, Olivier Nat Commun Article How long is needed for an observable to exceed its previous highest value and establish a new record? This time, known as the age of a record plays a crucial role in quantifying record statistics. Until now, general methods for determining record age statistics have been limited to observations of either independent random variables or successive positions of a Markovian (memoryless) random walk. Here we develop a theoretical framework to determine record age statistics in the presence of memory effects for continuous non-smooth processes that are asymptotically scale-invariant. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed by numerical simulations and experimental realisations of diverse representative non-Markovian random walk models and real time series with memory effects, in fields as diverse as genomics, climatology, hydrology, geology and computer science. Our results reveal the crucial role of the number of records already achieved in time series and change our view on analysing record statistics. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-10-09 /pmc/articles/PMC10562453/ /pubmed/37813834 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41945-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Régnier, Léo Dolgushev, Maxim Bénichou, Olivier Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks |
title | Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks |
title_full | Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks |
title_fullStr | Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks |
title_full_unstemmed | Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks |
title_short | Record ages of non-Markovian scale-invariant random walks |
title_sort | record ages of non-markovian scale-invariant random walks |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10562453/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37813834 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41945-9 |
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