Comparison of different predictive biomarker testing assays for PD-1/PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitors response: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of efficacy of programmed cell death 1 (PD-1)/programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1) checkpoint inhibitors is of critical importance. To address this issue, a network meta-analysis (NMA) comparing existing common measurements for curative effect of PD-1/PD-L1 monotherapy was conducted. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library database, and relevant clinical trials to find out studies published before Feb 22, 2023 that use PD-L1 immunohistochemistry (IHC), tumor mutational burden (TMB), gene expression profiling (GEP), microsatellite instability (MSI), multiplex IHC/immunofluorescence (mIHC/IF), other immunohistochemistry and hematoxylin-eosin staining (other IHC&HE) and combined assays to determine objective response rates to anti–PD-1/PD-L1 monotherapy. Study-level data were extracted from the published studies. The primary goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive efficacy and rank these assays mainly by NMA, and the second objective was to compare them in subgroup analyses. Heterogeneity, quality assessment, and result validation were also conducted by meta-analysis. FINDINGS: 144 diagnostic index tests in 49 studies covering 5322 patients were eligible for inclusion. mIHC/IF exhibited highest sensitivity (0.76, 95% CI: 0.57-0.89), the second diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) (5.09, 95% CI: 1.35-13.90), and the second superiority index (2.86). MSI had highest specificity (0.90, 95% CI: 0.85-0.94), and DOR (6.79, 95% CI: 3.48-11.91), especially in gastrointestinal tumors. Subgroup analyses by tumor types found that mIHC/IF, and other IHC&HE demonstrated high predictive efficacy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), while PD-L1 IHC and MSI were highly efficacious in predicting the effectiveness in gastrointestinal tumors. When PD-L1 IHC was combined with TMB, the sensitivity (0.89, 95% CI: 0.82-0.94) was noticeably improved revealed by meta-analysis in all studies. INTERPRETATION: Considering statistical results of NMA and clinical applicability, mIHC/IF appeared to have superior performance in predicting response to anti PD-1/PD-L1 therapy. Combined assays could further improve the predictive efficacy. Prospective clinical trials involving a wider range of tumor types are needed to establish a definitive gold standard in future.