Prognostic impact of adjuvant endocrine therapy for estrogen receptor-positive and HER2-negative T1a/bN0M0 breast cancer

PURPOSE: Mammography screening has increased the detection of subcentimeter breast cancers. The prognosis for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative T1a/bN0M0 breast cancers is excellent; however, the necessity of adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) is uncertain. METHODS: We evaluated the effectiveness of adjuvant ET in patients with ER-positive and HER2-negative T1a/bN0M0 breast cancer who underwent surgery from 2008 to 2012. Standard ET was administrated after surgery. The primary endpoint was the cumulative incidence of distant metastasis. All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: Adjuvant ET was administered to 3991 (83%) of the 4758 eligible patients (1202 T1a [25.3%] and 3556 T1b [74.7%], diseases). The median follow-up period was 9.2 years. The 9-year cumulative incidence of distant metastasis was 1.5% with ET and 2.6% without ET (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR], 0.54; 95% CI, 0.32–0.93). In multivariate analysis, the independent risk factors for distant metastasis were no history of ET, mastectomy, high-grade, and lymphatic invasion. The 9-year overall survival was 97.0% and 94.4% with and without ET, respectively (adjusted HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.39–0.83). In addition, adjuvant ET reduced the incidence of ipsilateral and contralateral breast cancer (9-year rates; 1.1% vs. 6.9%; sHR, 0.17, and 1.9% vs. 5.2%; sHR, 0.33). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis was favorable in patients with ER-positive and HER2-negative T1a/bN0M0 breast cancer. Furthermore, adjuvant ET reduced the incidence of distant metastasis with minimal absolute risk difference. These findings support considering the omission of adjuvant ET, especially for patients with low-grade and no lymphatic invasion disease. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10549-023-07097-6.