Prediction of acute kidney injury following coronary artery bypass graft surgery in elderly Chinese population

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and serious complication following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Advanced age is an independent risk factor for the development of AKI, and the incidence of AKI in the elderly increases more rapidly than that in younger patients. This study aimed to develop and validate the risk prediction model for AKI after CABG in elderly patients. METHODS: Patients were retrospectively recruited from January 2019 to December 2020. AKI after CABG was defined according to the criteria of Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO). The entire population was divided into the derivation set and the verification set using random split sampling (ratio: 7:3). Lasso regression method was applied to screen for the variables in the derivation set. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to analyze the predictive ability of the model for AKI risk in the derivation set and the verification set. RESULTS: A total of 2155 patients were enrolled in this study. They were randomly divided into the derivation set (1509 cases) and the validation set (646 cases). Risk factors associated with AKI were selected by Lasso regression including T2DM, diabetes mellitus type intraoperative use of intra-aortic ballon pump (IABP), cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), epinephrine, isoprenaline, and so on. The model was established by Lasso logistic regression. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model for the derivation set was 0.754 (95% CI: 0.720 − 0.789), and that for the validation cohort was 0.718 (95% CI: 0.665 − 0.771). CONCLUSION: In this study, the model with significant preoperative and intraoperative variables showed good prediction performance for AKI following CABG in elderly patients to optimize postoperative treatment strategies and improve early prognosis. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13019-023-02372-5.