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Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems
Power system resource adequacy (RA), or its ability to continually balance energy supply and demand, underpins human and economic health. How meteorology affects RA and RA failures, particularly with increasing penetrations of renewables, is poorly understood. We characterize large-scale circulation...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10567759/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37821475 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41875-6 |
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author | Sundar, Srihari Craig, Michael T. Payne, Ashley E. Brayshaw, David J. Lehner, Flavio |
author_facet | Sundar, Srihari Craig, Michael T. Payne, Ashley E. Brayshaw, David J. Lehner, Flavio |
author_sort | Sundar, Srihari |
collection | PubMed |
description | Power system resource adequacy (RA), or its ability to continually balance energy supply and demand, underpins human and economic health. How meteorology affects RA and RA failures, particularly with increasing penetrations of renewables, is poorly understood. We characterize large-scale circulation patterns that drive RA failures in the Western U.S. at increasing wind and solar penetrations by integrating power system and synoptic meteorology methods. At up to 60% renewable penetration and across analyzed weather years, three high pressure patterns drive nearly all RA failures. The highest pressure anomaly is the dominant driver, accounting for 20-100% of risk hours and 43-100% of cumulative risk at 60% renewable penetration. The three high pressure patterns exhibit positive surface temperature anomalies, mixed surface solar radiation anomalies, and negative wind speed anomalies across our region, which collectively increase demand and decrease supply. Our characterized meteorological drivers align with meteorology during the California 2020 rolling blackouts, indicating continued vulnerability of power systems to these impactful weather patterns as renewables grow. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10567759 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-105677592023-10-13 Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems Sundar, Srihari Craig, Michael T. Payne, Ashley E. Brayshaw, David J. Lehner, Flavio Nat Commun Article Power system resource adequacy (RA), or its ability to continually balance energy supply and demand, underpins human and economic health. How meteorology affects RA and RA failures, particularly with increasing penetrations of renewables, is poorly understood. We characterize large-scale circulation patterns that drive RA failures in the Western U.S. at increasing wind and solar penetrations by integrating power system and synoptic meteorology methods. At up to 60% renewable penetration and across analyzed weather years, three high pressure patterns drive nearly all RA failures. The highest pressure anomaly is the dominant driver, accounting for 20-100% of risk hours and 43-100% of cumulative risk at 60% renewable penetration. The three high pressure patterns exhibit positive surface temperature anomalies, mixed surface solar radiation anomalies, and negative wind speed anomalies across our region, which collectively increase demand and decrease supply. Our characterized meteorological drivers align with meteorology during the California 2020 rolling blackouts, indicating continued vulnerability of power systems to these impactful weather patterns as renewables grow. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-10-11 /pmc/articles/PMC10567759/ /pubmed/37821475 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41875-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Sundar, Srihari Craig, Michael T. Payne, Ashley E. Brayshaw, David J. Lehner, Flavio Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems |
title | Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems |
title_full | Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems |
title_fullStr | Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems |
title_full_unstemmed | Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems |
title_short | Meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable Western U.S. power systems |
title_sort | meteorological drivers of resource adequacy failures in current and high renewable western u.s. power systems |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10567759/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37821475 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41875-6 |
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