Predictors of very early death in acute promyelocytic leukemia: a retrospective real-world cohort study

Early death (ED) is still the major obstacle to cure in acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). Most studies focus on 30-day ED; however, little is known on predictors of death before starting APL treatment (very early death — VED) and on predictors of 7-day ED, the period with most deaths due to thrombohemorrhagic diathesis. We hypothesized whether the severity of the coagulopathy of APL could predict VED and 7-day ED. We also aimed to evaluate other characteristics associated with these outcomes. We undertook a retrospective, single-center observational study including newly diagnosed APL patients admitted to our institution between January 2000 and November 2022. Baseline demographical, clinical, and laboratorial data were collected. Statistical analysis was performed using Stata. One hundred four patients were included. The VED rate was 4.8%. A DIC Score ≥ 7 (p = 0.045), serum creatinine > 1.5 mg/dL (p < 0.001%), a DIC Score ≥ 6 within 24 h (p = 0.009), and mechanical ventilation (p < 0.001) were associated with VED. The 7-day ED rate was 12.5%. High-risk (p = 0.007) and hypogranular APL (p = 0.029), DIC Score at diagnosis (p = 0.047), DIC Score ≥ 7 (p = 0.043), DIC Score ≥ 6 within 24 h (p = 0.025), PT prolongation > 6 s (p = 0.002), and creatinine > 1.5 mg/dL (p = 0.004) were associated with 7-day ED. However, only elevated creatinine emerged as an independent predictor of 7-day ED (OR 21.4; p = 0.008). Our study shows that in patients with APL, an elevated creatinine at diagnosis strongly predicts for 7-day ED. A DIC Score ≥ 7 and a Score that remains ≥ 6 within 24 h and a serum creatinine > 1.5 mg/dL significantly associated with VED.