A clinical prediction model for non-operative management failure in patients with high-grade blunt splenic injury

BACKGROUND: Nonoperative management (NOM) is the standard treatment for hemodynamically stable blunt splenic injury (BSI). However, NOM failure is a significant source of morbidity and mortality. We developed a clinical risk scoring system for NOM failure in BSI. METHODS: Data from the Japanese Trauma Data Bank from 2008 to 2018 were analyzed. Eligible patients were restricted to those who underwent NOM with high-grade BSI (Organ Injury Scale ≥3). The primary outcome was a predictive score for NOM failure based on risk estimation. RESULTS: There were 1651 patients included in this analysis, among whom 110 (6.7%) patients had NOM failure. Multivariate analysis identified seven variables associated with failed NOM: systolic blood pressure, Glasgow coma scale, Injury Severity Score, other concomitant abdominal injury, pelvic injury, high-grade BSI, and angioembolization. An eight-point predictive score was developed with a cut-off of greater than 5 points (specificity, 98.2%; sensitivity, 25.5%) with an area under the curve of 0.81. CONCLUSION: The clinical predictive score had good ability to predict NOM failure and may help surgeons to make better decisions for BSI.