Evaluation of dynamic recurrence risk for locally advanced gastric cancer in the clinical setting of adjuvant chemotherapy: a real-world study with IPTW-based conditional recurrence analysis

BACKGROUND: The long-term dynamic recurrence hazard of locally advanced gastric cancer (LAGC) in the clinical setting of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) remains unclear. PURPOSE: This study aimed to investigate the dynamic recurrence risk of LAGC in patients who received ACT or not. METHODS: The study assessed data from patients with LAGC who underwent radical gastrectomy between January, 2010 and October, 2015. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was performed to reduce selection bias between the ACT and observational (OBS) groups. Conditional recurrence-free survival (cRFS) and restricted mean survival time (RMST) were used to assess the survival differences. RESULTS: In total, 1,661 LAGC patients were included (ACT group, n = 1,236 and OBS group, n = 425). The recurrence hazard gradually declined; in contrast, cRFS increased with RFS already accrued. Following IPTW adjustment, the cRFS rates were higher in the ACT group than those in the OBS group for patients at baseline or with accrued RFS of 1 and 2 years (p˂0.05). However, the cRFS rates of the ACT group were comparable with those of the OBS group for patients with accrued RFS of 3 or more years (p > 0.05). Likewise, the 5-year △RMST between the ACT and OBS groups demonstrated a similar trend. Moreover, the hematological metastasis rate of the ACT group was significantly lower than that of the OBS group for patients at baseline or with accrued RFS of 1 and 2 years, respectively (p˂0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Although ACT could provide substantial benefits for patients with LAGC, the differences in recurrence hazard between the ACT and OBS groups may attenuate over time, which could help guide surveillance and alleviate patients’ anxiety. Further prospective large-scale studies are warranted. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-11143-3.