Incidence and predictors of treatment failure among children with HIV on first-line antiretroviral therapy in Wolaita zone, Southern Ethiopia: A multicenter retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy has improved the life expectancy of HIV-positive children. Treatment failure and drug resistance among children with HIV remain major public health concerns despite the rise in ART use. A dearth of evidence exists regarding treatment failure among Ethiopian children from multicenter settings. Therefore, this study sought to assess the incidence and predictors of treatment failure among children with HIV on first-line antiretroviral therapy at health facilities in Wolaita zone, Southern Ethiopia. METHODS: A facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted from January 1, 2017, to December 30, 2021, at health facilities providing ART in Wolaita zone, Southern Ethiopia. A total of 425 children with HIV on first-line ART were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data were extracted by reviewing the patient's medical record. The data were entered using epi-data version 4.6 and exported to STATA version 15 for analysis. Both bi-variable and multivariable Cox regression analysis were employed. A p-value of less than 0.05 and a hazard ratio with 95 % CI was used to estimate the association between the predictor factors and treatment failure. RESULTS: The overall incidence density rate of treatment failure was 3.2 per 1000 person-months of observation (95 % CI: 2.4–4.6). The factors significantly associated with antiretroviral treatment failure were caregiver marital status, single (AHR = 4.86, 95 % CI: 1.52, 15.60), and widowed (AHR = 3.75, 95 % CI: 1.16, 12.11), duration of follow-up (AHR = 4.95, 95 % CI: 1.81, 13.54), and baseline CD4 count (AHR = 4.70, 95 % CI: 1.68, 13.14). CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of ART failure among children with HIV was found to be significant. Low baseline CD4 count, short follow-up duration on ART, and having a single or widowed caregiver were significantly associated with antiretroviral treatment failure. Early identification of children with low CD4 count and subsequent initiation of ART should be emphasized by stakeholders working in HIV care programs. Healthcare professionals should pay special attention to and regularly monitor the treatment progress of children who have single or widowed caregivers, and those with shorter duration of follow-ups.