Cargando…

Development and validation of a prediction model for iron status in a large U.S. cohort of women

Serum iron levels can be important contributors to health outcomes, but it is not often feasible to rely on blood-based measures for a large epidemiologic study. Predictive models that use questionnaire-based factors such as diet, supplement use, recency of blood donation, and medical conditions cou...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Von Holle, Ann, O’Brien, Katie M., Janicek, Robert, Weinberg, Clarice R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10570329/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37828137
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42993-3
_version_ 1785119741479747584
author Von Holle, Ann
O’Brien, Katie M.
Janicek, Robert
Weinberg, Clarice R.
author_facet Von Holle, Ann
O’Brien, Katie M.
Janicek, Robert
Weinberg, Clarice R.
author_sort Von Holle, Ann
collection PubMed
description Serum iron levels can be important contributors to health outcomes, but it is not often feasible to rely on blood-based measures for a large epidemiologic study. Predictive models that use questionnaire-based factors such as diet, supplement use, recency of blood donation, and medical conditions could potentially provide a noninvasive alternative for studying health effects associated with iron status. We hypothesized that a model based on questionnaire data could predict blood-based measures of iron status biomarkers. Using iron (mcg/dL), ferritin (mcg/dL), and transferrin saturation (%) based on blood collected at study entry, in a subsample from the U.S.-wide Sister Study (n = 3171), we developed and validated a prediction model for iron with multivariable linear regression models. Model performance based on these cross-sectional data was weak, with R(2) less than 0.10 for serum iron and transferrin saturation, but better for ferritin, with an R(2) of 0.13 in premenopausal women and 0.19 in postmenopausal women. When menopause was included in the predictive model for the sample, the R(2) was 0.31 for ferritin. Internal validation of the estimates indicated some optimism present in the observed prediction model, implying there would be worse performance when applied to new samples from the same population. Serum iron status is hard to assess based only on questionnaire data. Reducing measurement error in both the exposure and outcome may improve the prediction model performance, but environmental heterogeneity, temporal variation, and genetic heterogeneity in absorption and storage may contribute substantially to iron status.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-10570329
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2023
publisher Nature Publishing Group UK
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-105703292023-10-14 Development and validation of a prediction model for iron status in a large U.S. cohort of women Von Holle, Ann O’Brien, Katie M. Janicek, Robert Weinberg, Clarice R. Sci Rep Article Serum iron levels can be important contributors to health outcomes, but it is not often feasible to rely on blood-based measures for a large epidemiologic study. Predictive models that use questionnaire-based factors such as diet, supplement use, recency of blood donation, and medical conditions could potentially provide a noninvasive alternative for studying health effects associated with iron status. We hypothesized that a model based on questionnaire data could predict blood-based measures of iron status biomarkers. Using iron (mcg/dL), ferritin (mcg/dL), and transferrin saturation (%) based on blood collected at study entry, in a subsample from the U.S.-wide Sister Study (n = 3171), we developed and validated a prediction model for iron with multivariable linear regression models. Model performance based on these cross-sectional data was weak, with R(2) less than 0.10 for serum iron and transferrin saturation, but better for ferritin, with an R(2) of 0.13 in premenopausal women and 0.19 in postmenopausal women. When menopause was included in the predictive model for the sample, the R(2) was 0.31 for ferritin. Internal validation of the estimates indicated some optimism present in the observed prediction model, implying there would be worse performance when applied to new samples from the same population. Serum iron status is hard to assess based only on questionnaire data. Reducing measurement error in both the exposure and outcome may improve the prediction model performance, but environmental heterogeneity, temporal variation, and genetic heterogeneity in absorption and storage may contribute substantially to iron status. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-10-12 /pmc/articles/PMC10570329/ /pubmed/37828137 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42993-3 Text en © This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Von Holle, Ann
O’Brien, Katie M.
Janicek, Robert
Weinberg, Clarice R.
Development and validation of a prediction model for iron status in a large U.S. cohort of women
title Development and validation of a prediction model for iron status in a large U.S. cohort of women
title_full Development and validation of a prediction model for iron status in a large U.S. cohort of women
title_fullStr Development and validation of a prediction model for iron status in a large U.S. cohort of women
title_full_unstemmed Development and validation of a prediction model for iron status in a large U.S. cohort of women
title_short Development and validation of a prediction model for iron status in a large U.S. cohort of women
title_sort development and validation of a prediction model for iron status in a large u.s. cohort of women
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10570329/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37828137
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42993-3
work_keys_str_mv AT vonholleann developmentandvalidationofapredictionmodelforironstatusinalargeuscohortofwomen
AT obrienkatiem developmentandvalidationofapredictionmodelforironstatusinalargeuscohortofwomen
AT janicekrobert developmentandvalidationofapredictionmodelforironstatusinalargeuscohortofwomen
AT weinbergclaricer developmentandvalidationofapredictionmodelforironstatusinalargeuscohortofwomen