Development and validation of a predictive model of abnormal uterine bleeding associated with ovulatory dysfunction: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: Abnormal uterine bleeding associated with ovulatory dysfunction (AUB-O) is a typical gynecological disease that can affect women of various ages. Being able to identify women at risk of AUB-O could allow physicians to take timely action. This study aimed to identify the influencing factors of AUB-O in Chinese women, and then develop and validate a predictive model. METHODS: In this multicenter case–control study, 391 women with AUB-O and 838 controls who came from nine hospitals in Zhejiang province were recruited between April 2019 and January 2022. All the participants completed a structured questionnaire including general characteristics, lifestyle and habits, menstrual and reproductive history, and previous diseases. The predictive model was developed on a group of 822 women and validated on a group of 407 women. Logistic regression was adopted to investigate the influencing factors and develop the model, and validation was then performed. RESULTS: The independent predictive factors of AUB-O were age (OR 1.073, 95% CI 1.046—1.102, P < 0.001), body mass index (OR 1.081, 95% CI 1.016—1.151, P = 0.015), systolic blood pressure (OR 1.016, 95% CI 1.002—1.029, P = 0.023), residence (OR 2.451, 95% CI 1.727—3.478, P < 0.001), plant-based diet (OR 2.306, 95% CI 1.415—3.759, P < 0.001), fruits eating (OR 1.887, 95% CI 1.282—2.776, P = 0.001), daily sleep duration (OR 0.819; 95% CI 0.708—0.946, P = 0.007), multiparous (parity = 1, OR 0.424, 95% CI 0.239—0.752, P = 0.003; parity > 1, OR 0.450, 95% CI 0.247—0.822, P = 0.009), and history of ovarian cyst (OR 1.880, 95% CI 1.305—2.710, P < 0.001). The predictive ability (area under the curve) in the development group was 0.77 (95% CI 0.74—0.81), while in the validation group it was 0.73 (95% CI 0.67—0.79). The calibration curve was in high coincidence with the standard curve in the development group, and similar to the validation group. A tool for AUB-O risk calculation was created. CONCLUSIONS: Nine influencing factors and a predictive model were proposed in this study, which could identify women who are at high risk of developing AUB-O. This finding highlights the importance of early screening and the lifelong management of ovulatory disorders for women. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12905-023-02589-5.