Predictors for post-traumatic hip osteoarthritis in patients with transverse acetabular fractures following open reduction internal fixation: a minimum of 2 years’ follow-up multicenter study

BACKGROUND: The predictors of post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) in patients with transverse acetabular fractures (TAFs) following open reduction internal fixation (ORIF) remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for PTOA in TAFs after ORIF. METHODS: Data of TAF patients receiving ORIF were collected from January 2012 and February 2021. Patients suffered PTOA were classified as the osteoarthritis group (OG), while those without PTOA were classified as the non- osteoarthritis group (NG) with a minimum follow-up of 2 years. PTOA was diagnosed according to Tönnis OA classification during the period of follow-up. Univariate analysis, logistic regression analysis, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to evaluate demographics, injury-related characteristics, perioperative and post-discharge information. RESULTS: Three hundred and eleven TAF patients were analyzed in this study, including 261 males and 50 females, with a mean age of 40.4 years (range 18 to 64 years). The incidence of PTOA was 29.6% (92 of 311) during the mean follow-up of 36.8 months (range 24 to 70 months). Several factors of PTOA were found using univariate analysis, including transverse fracture associated with posterior wall acetabular fracture (TPW-AF, p = 0.002), acetabular roof fracture (ARF, p = 0.001), femoral head lesion (FHL, p = 0.016), longer time from injury to surgery (TIS, p＜0.001) and physical work after surgery (PWAS, p＜0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed that TPW-AF (p = 0.007, OR = 2.610, 95%CI: 1.302–5.232), ARF (p = 0.001, OR = 2.887, 95%CI: 1.512–5.512), FHL (p = 0.005, OR = 2.302, 95%CI: 1.283–4.131), TIS (p<0.0001, OR = 1.294, 95%CI: 1.192–1.405) and PWAS (p<0.0001, 3.198, 95%CI: 1.765–5.797) were independent risk factors of PTOA. Furthermore, ROC curve analysis indicated 11.5 days as the cut-off values to predict PTOA. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings identified that TPW-AF, ARF, FHL, TIS and PWAS were independent risk factors for PTOA in patients with TAFs following ORIF. It can help orthopedic surgeons to take early individualized interventions to reduce its incidence.