Potential Impacts of Energy and Vehicle Transformation Through 2050 on Oxidative Stress‐Inducing PM(2.5) Metals Concentration in Japan

The impacts of renewable energy shifting, passenger car electrification, and lightweighting through 2050 on the atmospheric concentrations of PM(2.5) total mass and oxidative stress‐inducing metals (PM(2.5)‐Fe, Cu, and Zn) in Japan were evaluated using a regional meteorology–chemistry model. The surface concentrations of PM(2.5) total mass, Fe, Cu, and Zn in the urban area decreased by 8%, 13%, 18%, and 5%, respectively. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have been considered to have no advantage in terms of non‐exhaust PM emissions by previous studies. This is because the disadvantages (heavier weight increases tire wear, road wear, and resuspention) offset the advantages (regenerative braking system (RBS) reduces brake wear). However, the future lightweighting of drive battery and body frame were estimated to reduce all non‐exhaust PM. Passenger car electrification only reduced PM(2.5) concentration by 2%. However, Fe and Cu concentrations were more reduced (−8% and −13%, respectively) because they have high brake wear‐derived and significantly reflects the benefits of BEV's RBS. The water‐soluble fraction concentration of metals (induces oxidative stress in the body) was estimated based on aerosol acidity. The reduction of SO(x), NO(x), and NH(3) emissions from on‐road and thermal power plants slightly changed the aerosol acidity (pH ± 0.2). However, it had a negligible effect on water‐soluble metal concentrations (maximum +2% for Fe and +0.5% for Cu and Zn). Therefore, the metal emissions reduction was more important than gaseous pollutants in decreasing the water‐soluble metals that induces respiratory oxidative stress and passenger car electrification and lightweighting were effective means of achieving this.