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A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination

COVID-19 disrupted school attendance in many countries, delaying routine adolescent vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in some settings. We used Policy1-Cervix, a dynamic model simulating HPV transmission, natural history, vaccination, cervical screening, and diagnosis of HPV-related can...

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Autores principales: Velentzis, Louiza S, Smith, Megan A, Killen, James, Brotherton, Julia ML, Guy, Rebecca, Canfell, Karen
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10575627/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37831501
http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.85720
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author Velentzis, Louiza S
Smith, Megan A
Killen, James
Brotherton, Julia ML
Guy, Rebecca
Canfell, Karen
author_facet Velentzis, Louiza S
Smith, Megan A
Killen, James
Brotherton, Julia ML
Guy, Rebecca
Canfell, Karen
author_sort Velentzis, Louiza S
collection PubMed
description COVID-19 disrupted school attendance in many countries, delaying routine adolescent vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in some settings. We used Policy1-Cervix, a dynamic model simulating HPV transmission, natural history, vaccination, cervical screening, and diagnosis of HPV-related cancers, to estimate the impact on HPV-related cancers from disruptions to HPV vaccination in a high-income setting. A baseline scenario of no disruption to HPV vaccination was modelled, which assumed uptake of the nonavalent vaccine at the age of 12 by 82.4% of females and 75.5% of males, as is the coverage in Australia. Additional lifetime HPV-related cancer cases were calculated for three disruption scenarios affecting one birth cohort (2008; aged 12 in 2020) compared to the baseline scenario: (1) 1-year delay (no doses missed); (2) 1- to 7-year delay (slow catch-up); (3) no catch-up (herd effects only). A fourth scenario assumed no catch-up HPV vaccination for two birth cohorts, that is all individuals born in 2008 and in 2009 missed vaccination (worst-case scenario). Compared to 1532 HPV-related cancer cases estimated for the baseline no disruption scenario, we found a 1-year delay could result in ≤0.3% more HPV-related cancers (n = 4) but the increase would be greater if catch-up was slower (5%; n = 70), and especially if there was no catch-up (49%; n = 750). Additional cancers for a single missed cohort were most commonly cervical (23% of the additional cases) and anal cancers (16%) in females and oropharyngeal cancers in males (20%). In the worst-case scenario of two birth cohorts missing vaccination, ≤62% more HPV-related cancers would be diagnosed (n = 1892). In conclusion, providing catch-up of missed HPV vaccines is conducted, short-term delays in vaccinating adolescents are unlikely to have substantial long-term effects on cancer.
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spelling pubmed-105756272023-10-14 A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination Velentzis, Louiza S Smith, Megan A Killen, James Brotherton, Julia ML Guy, Rebecca Canfell, Karen eLife Epidemiology and Global Health COVID-19 disrupted school attendance in many countries, delaying routine adolescent vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in some settings. We used Policy1-Cervix, a dynamic model simulating HPV transmission, natural history, vaccination, cervical screening, and diagnosis of HPV-related cancers, to estimate the impact on HPV-related cancers from disruptions to HPV vaccination in a high-income setting. A baseline scenario of no disruption to HPV vaccination was modelled, which assumed uptake of the nonavalent vaccine at the age of 12 by 82.4% of females and 75.5% of males, as is the coverage in Australia. Additional lifetime HPV-related cancer cases were calculated for three disruption scenarios affecting one birth cohort (2008; aged 12 in 2020) compared to the baseline scenario: (1) 1-year delay (no doses missed); (2) 1- to 7-year delay (slow catch-up); (3) no catch-up (herd effects only). A fourth scenario assumed no catch-up HPV vaccination for two birth cohorts, that is all individuals born in 2008 and in 2009 missed vaccination (worst-case scenario). Compared to 1532 HPV-related cancer cases estimated for the baseline no disruption scenario, we found a 1-year delay could result in ≤0.3% more HPV-related cancers (n = 4) but the increase would be greater if catch-up was slower (5%; n = 70), and especially if there was no catch-up (49%; n = 750). Additional cancers for a single missed cohort were most commonly cervical (23% of the additional cases) and anal cancers (16%) in females and oropharyngeal cancers in males (20%). In the worst-case scenario of two birth cohorts missing vaccination, ≤62% more HPV-related cancers would be diagnosed (n = 1892). In conclusion, providing catch-up of missed HPV vaccines is conducted, short-term delays in vaccinating adolescents are unlikely to have substantial long-term effects on cancer. eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd 2023-10-13 /pmc/articles/PMC10575627/ /pubmed/37831501 http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.85720 Text en © 2023, Velentzis, Smith et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Epidemiology and Global Health
Velentzis, Louiza S
Smith, Megan A
Killen, James
Brotherton, Julia ML
Guy, Rebecca
Canfell, Karen
A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination
title A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination
title_full A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination
title_fullStr A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination
title_full_unstemmed A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination
title_short A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination
title_sort modelled analysis of the impact of covid-19-related disruptions to hpv vaccination
topic Epidemiology and Global Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10575627/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37831501
http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.85720
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