Association of adiposity and its changes over time with COVID-19 risk in older adults with overweight/obesity and metabolic syndrome: a longitudinal evaluation in the PREDIMED-Plus cohort

BACKGROUND: Cross-sectionally, older age and obesity are associated with increased coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) risk. We assessed the longitudinal associations of baseline and changes in adiposity parameters with COVID-19 incidence in older adults at high cardiovascular risk. METHODS: This analysis included 6874 men and women (aged 55–75 years) with overweight/obesity and metabolic syndrome in the PREDIMED-Plus lifestyle intervention trial for cardiovascular risk reduction. Body weight, body-mass-index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and a body shape index (ABSI) were measured at baseline and annual follow-up visits. COVID-19 was ascertained by an independent Event Committee until 31 December 2021. Cox regression models were fitted to evaluate the risk of COVID-19 incidence based on baseline adiposity parameters measured 5–6 years before the pandemic and their changes at the visit prior to censoring. RESULTS: At the time of censoring, 653 incident COVID-19 cases occurred. Higher baseline body weight, BMI, waist circumference, and WHtR were associated with increased COVID-19 risk. During the follow-up, every unit increase in body weight (HR(adj) (95%CI): 1.01 (1.00, 1.03)) and BMI (HR(adj): 1.04 (1.003, 1.08)) was associated with increased COVID-19 risk. CONCLUSIONS: In older adults with overweight/obesity, clinically significant weight loss may protect against COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered at the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial (ISRCT; http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN89898870). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-023-03079-z.