The role of threat anticipation in the development of psychopathology in adolescence: findings from the SIGMA Study

Childhood adversity is associated with psychopathology. First evidence in adults suggests that threat anticipation, i.e., an enhanced anticipation of unpleasant events creating an enduring sense of threat, may be a putative mechanism linking childhood adversity to psychopathology. This study aimed to test the indirect effect of childhood adversity on psychopathology via threat anticipation in a large community sample of adolescents. We measured childhood trauma and bullying victimization (as indicators of childhood adversity), threat anticipation, general psychopathology and prodromal psychotic symptoms in adolescents aged 12–16 years (full sample size N = 1682; minimum sample size in the complete case sample N = 449) in wave I of the SIGMA study. We found strong evidence that childhood adversity (e.g. childhood trauma, adj. β (aβ) = 0.54, p < .001) and threat anticipation (e.g. aβ = 0.36, p < .001) were associated with general psychopathology and prodromal psychotic symptoms. Moreover, there was evidence that the association between childhood adversity, general psychopathology and prodromal psychotic symptoms is mediated via pathways through threat anticipation (e.g. childhood trauma, aβ(indirect effect) = 0.13, p < .001). Threat anticipation may be a potential mechanism linking childhood adversity and psychopathology in adolescents. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00787-022-02048-w.