Nomogram for predicting the prognosis of metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with anti-PD1 therapy based on serum lipids analysis

BACKGROUND: Serum lipids have been identified to be used as prognostic biomarkers in several types of cancer. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of serum lipids in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients received anti-PD-1 therapy. METHODS: Pretreatment and the alteration of serum lipids, including apolipoprotein B (ApoB), apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I), cholesterol (CHO), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglyceride (TG) after 2 courses of anti-PD1 therapy, were collected. Kaplan–Meier survival and cox regression analysis were performed to identify the prognostic values on overall survival (OS). Finally, those significant predictors from multivariate analysis were used to construct a nomogram for the prediction of prognosis. RESULTS: Baseline ApoB, CHO, HDL-C, LDL-C and early changes of ApoB, ApoA-I, HDL-C were statistically significant in the ROC analysis, showing good discriminatory ability in terms of OS. In multivariate analysis, treatment lines, lung metastasis, baseline HDL-C (low vs. high, HR, 6.30; 95% CI 1.82–21.80; P = 0.004) and early changes in HDL-C (reduction vs. elevation, HR, 4.59, 95% CI 1.20–17.63; P = 0.026) independently predicted OS. The area under the time-dependent ROC curve at 1 year, 2 years and 3 years consistently demonstrated the satisfactory accuracy and predictive value of the nomogram (AUC: 0.88, 0.85, 0.84). CONCLUSION: Overall, high level at baseline and an early elevation of HDL-C are correlated with better outcomes in mCRC patients treated with anti-PD1 therapy. The constructed nomogram indicated that the factors are strong predictive markers for response and prognosis to anti-PD-1 therapy in metastatic colorectal cancer. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00262-023-03519-y.