Early biomarkers for prediction of severe manifestations of dengue fever: a systematic review and a meta-analysis

Early identification of dengue patients at risk of adverse outcomes is important to prevent hospital overcrowding in low- to middle- income countries during epidemics. We performed a systematic review to identify which biomarkers measured in first 96 h of fever could predict dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF, World Health Organization 1997 clinical classification) or severe dengue (SD, WHO 2009, clinical classification). PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases were searched for prospective cohort and nested case–control studies published from 1997 to Feb 27, 2022. The protocol for the study was registered in PROSPERO (ID: CRD42021230053). After screening 6747 publications, and analysing 37 eligible studies reporting on 5925 patients, elevated C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, interleukin-8 and decreased albumin levels were strongly associated with dengue haemorrhagic fever (by meta-analyses of multiple studies, p < 0.05), while elevated vascular cell adhesion protein 1, syndecan-1, aspartate aminotransferase and C-reactive protein levels were strongly associated with severe dengue (by meta-analyses of multiple studies, p < 0.05). Further 44 and 28 biomarkers were associated with the risk of DHF and SD respectively, but only in a single study. The meta-analyses suggest the importance of early acute inflammation with hepatic involvement in determining the subsequent course of illness in dengue.