Diagnostic rate estimation from Medicare records: Dependence on claim numbers and latent clinical features

OBJECTIVE: International Classification of Disorders version 10 (ICD-10) codes contribute heavily to healthcare data. Medicare claims and other data-sources are used to constitute study populations and appraise healthcare processes. How variability in claims-per-beneficiary impacts diagnostic determinations is inadequately understood. The objective of this study is so assess distributional properties of Medicare claims, and examine claim rates impact on code utilization and rate determinations. METHODS: The study population was Medicare beneficiaries aged 75–79.99 with claim(s) in the 5% standard analytical Carrier and Outpatient files, alive and participating in Medicare part B for all 12 months of 2017. Medicare beneficiary files were processed to create records containing all ICD-10 codes specified, key demographics, Part B and vital status, and the total claims for each 2017 beneficiary. Claim number cohorts were characterized. RESULTS: Beneficiaries meeting inclusion criteria totaled 221,625, these having 7,617,503 claims; 96.4% had between 1 and 120 claims. Median claims were 24 for males (females 25); modal claims were 11 (13). Average distinct codes per beneficiary increased with claims number. The assignment of ICD-10 codes, i.e., ‘diagnostic rate estimates’ (DRE), increased as claim numbers increased for most codes among those most commonly utilized. For some conditions, mostly benign and age-related, DREs plateaued as claim numbers increased. For other conditions, typically associated with clinical acuity, e.g., chest pain, DREs increased steeply with claims. CONCLUSIONS: Older adult Medicare beneficiaries aged 75–80 exhibited varying claims activity over the course of a year. Although DRE dependence on claim numbers varies across ICD-10 codes, rate estimates are higher for beneficiaries with claim numbers above the median.