Cardiovascular and microvascular outcomes according to vitamin D level and genetic variants among individuals with prediabetes: a prospective study

BACKGROUND: Whether serum vitamin D mediate vascular diseases in prediabetic populations remains unclear. This study aimed to determine the associations between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels and vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms with the risk of macrovascular complications, including myocardial infarction and stroke, and microvascular complications such as diabetic nephropathy and retinopathy, among adults with prediabetes. METHODS: Participants with prediabetes in UK Biobank were included (N = 56,387). Multivariable dose–response and Cox proportion models were used to explore the relationship of serum 25(OH)D status and the risks of vascular complications. The interaction of VDR polymorphisms with serum 25(OH)D level on risks of vascular events was also assessed. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12 years, higher levels of 25(OH)D were significantly and nonlinearly associated with a lower risk of macrovascular diseases among prediabetic individuals. The adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidential interval) of serum 25(OH)D levels of ≥ 75.0 nmol/L versus < 25 nmol/L were 0.75 (0.63–0.88) for myocardial infarction, 0.74 (0.55–1.00) for stroke, 1.02 (0.60–1.74) for diabetic nephropathy, and 1.30 (0.92–1.84) for diabetic retinopathy, respectively. The rs2228570 (FokI) polymorphisms significantly interacted with 25(OH)D on incident myocardial infarction (P-interaction = 0.042) and stroke (P-interaction = 0.033). The individuals with serum 25(OH)D level of 50.0–74.9 nmol/L and rs2228570 (FokI) homozygotes had the lowest risks of vascular complications. CONCLUSIONS: Lower serum 25(OH)D levels are significantly and nonlinearly associated with an increased risk of cardiocerebrovascular diseases in prediabetic individuals, with VDR polymorphisms of rs2228570 (FokI) modify such associations. Monitoring a safe 25(OH)D concentration is suggested to prevent the vascular complications for prediabetes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-023-04557-x.