Early Tumor Marker Response Predicts Treatment Outcomes in Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Receiving Combined Lenvatinib, Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors, and Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization Therapy

PURPOSE: Few reliable biomarkers for predicting the efficacy of triple therapy (lenvatinib + immune checkpoint inhibitors + transarterial chemoembolization) exist for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC). This study explored the prognostic role of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) levels in patients with uHCC receiving triple therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included 93 patients with uHCC who received triple therapy at Fujian Provincial Hospital between August 2020 and November 2022. Depending on the respective baseline levels, the patients were divided into high-AFP and high-DCP groups. An early response was defined as an AFP or DCP concentration >50% less than the baseline concentration after 6 weeks of triple therapy. The primary endpoint was the objective response rate (ORR). The secondary endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: After 6 weeks of triple therapy, 75.3% (58/77) and 78.9% (60/76) of patients in the high-AFP and high-DCP groups achieved an objective response. Early AFP and DCP responses were positively associated with ORR (high-AFP group: odds ratio [OR]: 13.542; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.991–45.950, p<0.001; high-DCP group: OR: 17.853; 95% CI: 4.478–71.179, p<0.001). In the high-AFP group, the 6-month, 12-month, and 18-month PFS and OS rates were higher in the AFP responders than those in the non-responders (PFS: 66.4%, 59.6%, 48.2% vs 42.3%, 19.3%, 0%, p<0.001; OS: 94.5%, 90.4%, 77.3% vs 75.6%, 66.2%, 49.6%, p=0.006). In the high-DCP group, the 6-month, 12-month, and 18-month PFS and OS rates were higher in the DCP responders than those in the non-responders (PFS: 67.4%, 57.7%, 39.0% vs 38.9%, 8.1%, 0%, p<0.001; OS: 94.7%, 94.7%, 83.3% vs 77.0%, 53.9%, 36.0%, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: After 6 weeks of triple therapy, an AFP or DCP reduction of >50% predicts better treatment outcomes in uHCC patients.